At least, so far, we’ve begun a nice FUBM but still…it sure does get old.
Take a look at the POSX. I think its important to note that the rallies are getting less and less dramatic. This tells me that there is waning enthusiasm to buy the dips. So, the question is, what happens when the buyers simply fail to appear? No bid and a steep drop. If you haven’t yet, I strongly encourage you to read the latest from Gonzalo Lira regarding the global reserve currency.
Onto the metals where I had hoped to buy the dip this morning. The building FUBM means I may have already missed it. Gold is $5 off its low and silver is back above $36. Gold, in particular, may not go much lower have filled its gap from Sunday’s open and finding support at $1420. If you wanted to gamble, the April options expire will expire next Monday. A dip later this morning back toward 1420 may present an opportunity to “roll the bones” on some April 1420 calls.
This “silver at 36” issue really has me perplexed. I’ve received a few emails telling me not to ascribe the action to “conspiracy theories” as it “lessens my credibility”. (First of all, I didn’t know I had any credibility. I’m typing this in my underwear, from my parents basement, trying to hurry to finish before the next re-run of Seinfeld starts.)
But, seriously, $36 has become THE BATTLEGROUND, whether intentional or not. Everyone is watching this level now. Longs are reluctant to add above 36 for fear of the quick beatdown. Shorts have their stops placed above last week’s highs for fear of being overwhelmed once the dam breaks. The dam will break eventually and the shorts are going to “take it in the shorts” again. In time, and I still think this will happen be later this week, silver will break clear of $36. Longs will gain confidence. Silver will breach the $36.75 highs of last week. Shorts will panic and start to cover. Silver will be at $37.50 real fast.
We’re trying again right now. It is Happy Tuesday, for crying out loud. I have a last of $36.12. A move UP through 36.20 would signal a run back toward the earlier highs near 36.35. IF we get through there…
More later. TF
12:20 EDT UPDATE:
Silver is trying…trying…to work itself free of the shackles of 36. The run this morning to $36.47 was the start. IF it can now find support back just below 36.30 (36.32 last), we may finally begin the thrust higher and start really squeezing the a-hole shorts.