Settlement

Settlement

by Turd Ferguson
I don’t know whether or not to be happy with today. I thought we’d trade higher overnight…we didn’t. I feared we’d trade lower during the day…we didn’t. The metals ended up mixed with silver slightly higher and gold modestly lower. Ho-hum. For an option expiration day (gold) and a settlement day (silver), I guess we should be pleased that the damage wasn’t any worse.

In fact, today’s CME notice showed us that, as of Friday, the Comex still had to settle 388 March contracts today. I guess they got it done. Perhaps this was part of the reason for the rebound in silver today as March contract holders got their JPM$ and rolled into May?
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html

So here are your charts for today. First, here’s a 2-hour gold followed by a 1-hour gold. Note that we are rangebound but that, within the range, it looks more like it wants to go lower than higher. We need to push thru 1425 and above 1430 to make me short-term excited.

Here’s a look at it’s greazy twin brother, crude. Note that it also looks like it wants to keep heading lower. A move through 103.50 will take it toward 102.50 and, if that happens, you can bet your batooty that it’ll drag gold down with it.

Silver continues to be our star performer. This serves to reinforce the idea that much of what we see regarding supply squeezes etc is, in fact, a real phenomenon. However, it too needs to get up and go a bit so that we can feel more comfortable in buying. A move tonight or tomorrow toward 37.50 would make Turd very happy. Rolling over here would drag us back toward today’s lows and even 36.25. If that were to fail, we’d probably see a test of the major support at 35.75.

I wish I had more for you but time is short today so I have to sign off for now. I hope to have another post for you later this evening. TF

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