Breakout

Breakout

by Turd Ferguson

On days like today, I feel compelled to remind you again that The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. I must admit, however, that this, written just 5 hours ago, has worked out pretty well:

“Gold is about to break out and head higher. By the looks of this chart, the breakout is coming very soon, probably within the next week. The price was capped back in November (the onset of QE2) at 1425. That level contained it and served as significant resistance for nearly four months. However, gold broke through that level in early March and has used the past six weeks to base above it. This is very important as the time is being used to acclimate buyers to a new paradigm price above 1400. Now that the base has been built, once gold moves higher, the breakout will be obvious to all (except that fool, Gartman). Having mentally adjusted to a 14 “handle”, new money begins to rush in as greed overwhelms fear. Somewhere north of 1500 will be the next pause point. Santa’s next angel is at 1521 and that sounds about right. I’d expect some light resistance in that area but gold will continue moving higher, eventually reaching $1600 on or before June 10, 2011.http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html

Cartoon Blythe has a pretty good handle on things, too, so we should start to consider the second part of her “message” last week. After allowing silver to pass through the old highs of 38.20, The Witch postulated that the monkeys should stand down and wait for silver to approach the round number, psychological barrier or $40 before attacking again. I’d say she probably is offering very sound advice. A great many themes discussed here suggest you can probably begin to take some profits this afternoon or tomorrow morning.
1) Forty dollars will likely offer short-term resistance.
2) The HUI is rapidly approaching old highs near 600. I have a last of 596.
3) Almost all range breakouts get immediately tested. Meaning gold will likely trade back down soon and test what now should be support above 1445.
4) Documented pattern of Tuesday highs and Wednesday/Thursday raids.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

Now don’t worry. Ole Turd isn’t getting out or getting short. I still hold all of my long-term positions. I’m just saying that if you wish to trade, you might sell a little on the open tomorrow if silver is above 39.50 and pushing 40. Let it reverse and look to buy back in, first near the old highs of 38.20 or even 37 if Blythe rolls out some dirty tricks and is able to get it down that far. Watch the HUI for a dip back near 580.

Here are your charts. First, behold this beautiful 8-hour gold chart. Conveniently, its takes us back to “Turd’s Bottom” in February. It shows the capping efforts at 1440-45 and now shows the breakout.

And here is a 5-minute silver. This chart is fun because it simply shows the action since midnight EDT.
Its stunning. One of the most beautiful, emphatic FUBMs you will ever see.

Lastly, now would be a good time to give you an update on our new playground. Mrs. Ferguson and I have been discussing the plusses and minuses of the investment opportunity in building it. Because we both recognize the potential and good that can come from it, the site is growing in its initial scope and capability. It will not simply be an extension of the current format. Because of this, work has not yet started on construction. However, we hope to finalize our plans with one of several, potential “contractors” this week with a planned launch date sometime in mid May. In the meantime, thank you for your patience and willingness to deal with the frustrations of the Google architecture. All I can promise is that the new site will be worth the wait. We (you and I, dear reader) have the opportunity to build something very special. A place for unbiased, shared information where positive feedback encourages users to help each other prepare for economic tribulations that are, most assuredly, coming.

The new site will be FREE for all who choose to read it. If anyone wishes to comment or otherwise participate in a discussion, you will be able to register and create an ID. It is NOT my intention to ever make it a subscription site. Charging a fee would be unfair and counterproductive to the stated goal of helping and educating as many people as possible. There will still be advertisements and sponsors for you to visit, however, and the new site will feature a more prominent “Feed The Turd” button for anyone wanting to share with The Turd some of the windfalls made by following his advice.

As I close, the PMs are continuing to rally on the Globex. June gold has a last of 1456 and May silver is at 39.27. Smile. Be happy. Days like today are to be savored. More this evening after I’ve had a chance to lift a glass in honor of Turdites everywhere. Thank you for making all of this possible! TF

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This entry was posted in Gold, Silver, Technical Analysis, Turd Ferguson. Bookmark the permalink.

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