Silver – 16 APR

You would be hard pressed to find a better looking chart than this. It says many things, but mostly it shows the sad state of affairs that is the paper silver market. This market has been manipulated lower for many years and it is simply time to get real.

Price is bumping up against the top of the trend channel that has been in place since the end of last summer. RSI is creating  another “Alps” formation. Stochastic is heading for another deep and extended embed.

What else does this chart say? Price is currently over 150% of the 200 day moving average (red), a level that is rarely sustainable for long. The MACD histogram could be showing some potential divergence in that the most recent peak is not as high as the preceding one. Price is outside of the Bollinger band or riding the upper boundary for an extended period. All this tells me that a correction would be normal and accepted by the market if it is of the mood to entertain such an idea. A Fibonacci 38.2 retrace would take us back to the previous swing low at 34.04. This market is so strong that I doubt it could make it that far without buyers coming in hard and in droves. No, more likely a pullback to kiss the 50 day moving average (blue) is in the cards. That average is currently 35.97 and will certainly continue its upward trajectory for sometime yet. I think 38 is a reasonable area to expect price to meet the blue moving average in the event of a correction of only 10% from current price. I will be a buyer here.

via $SILVER – Daily Candlesticks.

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