An Unbelievable Six Months

An Unbelievable Six Months

by Turd Ferguson

Time to celebrate, I guess. It’s hard to believe that it was already six months ago today that Mrs. Ferguson encouraged me, over lunch, to start this silly blog. In the time since:

1) I’ve written 395 posts! I’ve always wanted to be an author and that’s certainly enough for a small book.
2) As of this moment, we’ve had 5,891,335 individual pageviews. 2,003,481 in the past month, alone.
3) I added a “donate” button in December and now I’m in the process of spending almost every penny you’ve given me on the development of a dedicated, new site. Trust me, it’s worth it. You deserve it and it’s going to be very cool.
4) Gold closed on 11/11/10 at $1410. Silver was $27.59.
5) The U.S. has added over $1,000,000,000,000 to its national debt.

Sheesh! Can’t wait to see what the next six months hold.

Onto today, as discussed here ad nauseam, the PMs peaked overnight and have now begun their downward consolidation phase, right on schedule. Gold reached 1526.80, exceeding our target by almost $7. Its now back to 1509. Silver maxed out at 39.47, coming within 3 cents of our stated goal of 39.50. That’ll work. I just wish I’d gotten filled on the on the July 45 calls I was trying to sell overnight on the Globex. Nuts.

Again, don’t get all itchy to buy this dip as there is almost certainly a ways to go. I, for one, am going to let this play out all the way into next week before making any moves. If you wish to trade against The Turd, as many were discussing yesterday and overnight, do so at your own risk.

Let’s start with gold today. It continues to be the “leader” as it has not had the wild price swings of silver and crude. (It also hasn’t had any margin increases…yet.) With all of the uncertainty in the world, gold is still your best, and least volatile, investment. Also, did you see this today?
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=43439
This is definitely coming. Maybe not to a dollar near you but I am 100% certain that the new global or regional reserve currencies will have a tangible asset backing, be it precious metals, energy, land or some combination thereof.
I’m so certain of a golden rebound at $1500 that I will be buying June calls which expire two weeks from today. I’ll also be buying some August.

Now, here is silver. Catching a bottom on this down move is going to be quite challenging as it will probably overshoot again, just like it did last week. For now, I won’t even think about buying anything until we see $36.50. Once that is hit, I’ll watch for a dip near 36 and, if I’m lucky, I’ll be buying July calls sometime next week with the price between 35.50 and 36.

OK, here is crude. This looks like it will be dipping to at least $101, if not $100 or slightly below. I will be buying there, too. And please, for the love of pete, don’t get caught up in the hype and find yourself short this greasy stuff. Are you even aware that another “Gaza Flotilla” is being planned for later this month? MENA instability is not going away.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/activists-new-gaza-flotilla-in-final-planning-stages-1.358249
Much to the chagrin of President O’bottom and our esteemed and accomplished Attorney General, crude isn’t going down much farther regardless of how much they vilify traders and raise margins.

Lastly, the POSX has gone about as far as its going to go and now, with everyone from Santa to Bill Gross to Jim Rogers wanting to short the long bond, you can bet your batooty that the Fed will re-engage active support of the bond at the expense of the dollar.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-were-you-on-super-bowl-weekend.html
The index may linger around up here between 75 and 75.50 for a little while longer but it will, eventually, roll back over. Your first clue that its headed back down to 73 and 72 will be a break of 74.

Again, thank you for allowing me all of this fun for the past six months. I hope you’ve learned something and made a little fiat along the way. Have a great day! TF

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