Gold, Silver, PHYS and PSLV – 9 JUN

I am not real happy with Stockcharts.com, they have changed their chart format for both the continuous gold and continuous silver contract chart. The only thing available is a line chart. I prefer to base all my charting on intraday price action and the line chart only considers the closing price. That is why I like candle or bar charts, they show open, close, high, and low of the day. With that said the chart shows an up trend remains intact until support at 1532 is breached. Resistance is 1546. Stochastic remains embedded and until it crosses the 80 level all pullbacks should be considered buying opportunities. Very strong support exists at the 1474 level with strong resistance at the all time closing price of 1563.

Not a whole lot has changed on the chart of PHYS, the 100% allocated gold gold bullion fund. So far we have a correction within a short term up trend. The up trend stays in place until the swing low at 13.15 is taken out. Stochastic is just breaking through 80 and suggests that the 20 day moving average at 13.16 is now the initial price objective. this just happens to be where support is lying. Resistance is still the 13.54 level that never was convincingly breached.

The Elder Impulse chart is flirting with a red bar. The blue bar that suggests no exposure to any trade will turn red if price falls below the 13 day EMA, which indicates a possible short trade. The Short signal is not valid until price falls further to below the 65 day EMA (blue). Until then, the short signal is ignored.

Silver is in down trend defined by a lower low at 36.19 and a lower high at 37.05. Those two levels define immediate resistance and support levels. Stronger resistance lies above at 38.50 and stronger support below at 33.53. The 18 day moving average is just below current price and is the initial price objective following the loss of embedded stochastic status. Also, the 100 day moving average, currently at 35.67, has proven to be solid support for silver.

PSLV, the 100% allocated silver bullion fund,is finding support at the 16.24 level so far. Although it is in a short term downtrend, price is holding on the lower boundary of the longer term uptrend channel. Resistance is now the last swing high at 17.06 and then higher at 18.03. The Bollinger bands have really contracted and volatility is set to increase and blow price significantly higher or lower. If support here fails, then the 15.0 level comes into play as support.

Silver really needs a reality check from time to time. To do this you need to expand the view of the chart. Just below current support lies the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level at 17.26. This level will provide some natural support. I think we are range bound 15.0 as the floor and 18.0 as the ceiling.

The Elder Impulse chart is indicating a red bar and a valid signal to short PSLV. This signal results from both the 13 day EMA and the MACD histogram declining (red bar) and price below the 65 day EMA. This says the momentum in this market is increasing to the down side. I would guess that a move to 15.0 is in the cards.

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This entry was posted in Gold, Matrix Sentry TA, PHYS, PSLV, Silver, Technical Analysis. Bookmark the permalink.

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