Dan Norcini: Uptrending Channel is beginning to steepen for Gold

Uptrending Channel is beginning to steepen for Gold

by Trader Dan

Since late 2008, gold has been rising in a strong and steady fashion within the confines of a channel that I have marked out on the weekly price chart. As mentioned previously, its rise has been orderly and solid unlike silver which burned itself out by rising too quickly at one point earlier this year and is just now attempting to re-establish a solid uptrend.

Since the year 2011 has begun, a new and steeper price channel appears to be forming as the fundamental factors that have driven the metal onto new record highs show no sign of ameliorationg; if anything they are growing worse.

These three factors are:

(1.) Sovereign debt woes out of the Eurozone
(2.) Raging inflation across China and other parts of Asia
(3.)  Anemic economic growth in the US guaranteeing accomodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future

One can add to this a 4th factor which is the enormous amount of indebtedness being heaped upon the citizens of the US by politicians which is sinking the nation into an inescapable mire of perpetual debt slavery and has now set the stage for an inevitable downgrade of US debt worthiness. It seems to me that this recent travesty of a spectacle, in which lawmakers actually cheered plunging the nation further into bondage has brought home the gravity of the situation to an increasing number of citizens/investors.

In the West this has resulted in a loss of confidence in the monetary authorities and political leaders which has resulted in surging demand for gold as a safe haven and vehicle to protect the earning power of accumulated wealth. In the East it has led to gold buying as a hedge against soaring food and energy costs. All of this has now come together and is feeding the bullish sentiment for the metal.

Gold has been able to better the price cap near the $1625 level and is now in the process of attacking the $1650, the level which my good friend Jim Sinclair long predicted it would approach. Should it take out this level, it looks to be on a path to $1680 based on what I can from this newer channel. Downside support is initially at yesterday’s low of $1608 followed by $1600.

Aiding its upward progress in US Dollar terms is the fact that it has once again scored new all time highs priced in both the Euro and the British Pound.

The bond market is acting as if it has totally dismissed any rating agency potential downgrades. The Long bond continues moving vertically shoving rates lower putting a huge smile on the face of Federal Reserve officials and other assorted policy makers who are gleefuly watching the fools who would entrust their wealth to paper IOU’s of the federal government. I do not care whether US bonds are considered safe compared to the bonds of many EU member countries’ or not – buying Treasuries is a fool’s game especially when the US government is spitting them out faster than a Persian cat can spit out hairballs. They are utterly and completely worthless. Even China is sick to death of the things.
China loses trust in US economic stewardship
Asian giant to say no to dollar dominance
By Stephen S. Roach
Published: 00:00 July 31, 2011

New Haven: The Chinese have long admired America’s economic dynamism. But they have lost confidence in America’s government and its dysfunctional economic stewardship. That message came through loud and clear in my recent travels to Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Hong Kong.

http://gulfnews.com/business/opinion/china-loses-trust-in-us-economic-stewardship-1.845120

The S&P 500 has returned back down into a region from which it will have to soon reverse or else it will experience a rather rude sell off. If we get another rotten payrolls number, it is difficult to see how it is not going to break below 1250 this time.
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This entry was posted in Dan Norcini, Dan Norcini Gold Analysis, Gold, Technical Analysis, Trader Dan's Market Views, USD. Bookmark the permalink.

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