Gold – 9 Nov

Gold held up really well today considering the massive 121 basis point upwards move in the USD index. The news from Euroland is not good and the dollar was the recipient of safe haven flows as well as gold. If gold was not being perceived as a safe haven, the strength in the dollar would have really smacked the gold price hard like the good old days when A 120 basis point move would have been good for $50 in red candle.

The swing high yesterday at 1804 is now confirmed with the low put in today. Support is right where gold closed on the day near 1770. Another layer of support is farther down near 1750 and represents the swing low that must hold to maintain the current short term uptrend. Resistance is now the latest swing high at 1804, with another layer at 1825.

RSI has is heading lower and is now at a moderate 59. Stochastic is still embedded (both K & D lines above 80 for 3 or more days) and suggests strength where pullbacks provide opportunities for long trade entry. Traders could have entered a decent position today with little risk provided a stop is placed just below the swing low at 1750. If we close higher tomorrow the original stop below 1680 that was moved up to 1750 can be moved once again to just below 1770, what will be in that event a confirmed swing low. If 1750 falls tomorrow then the chart goes to short term neutral with a likely target of the climbing 18 day moving average, currently at 1715.

I would not be surprised for either case right now, a move back to 1804 or a move to retest the 18 and 45 day moving average. If I were still trading I would first smack myself for being thick headed, then I would put myself on a very short leash with tight stops. Thankfully I can work on my crockpot recipes and not worry about silly things like trading screens and news tickers because I buy physical gold with no intent to sell until price reflects true value.

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