Jesse’s Café Américain: Today is the First Notice Day for Silver and So We Have This Bear Raid on Metals

I came to a similar conclusion a couple of years ago that trading gold was far more risky than simply buying. I no longer trade. Buy the dips and build your physical stack.


Jesse’s Café Américain

“Three years after a horrific financial crisis was caused by massive fraud, not a single financial executive has gone to jail, and that’s wrong.” Charles Ferguson, Inside Job

29 February 2012

Today is the First Notice Day for Silver and So We Have This Bear Raid on Metals

Feb. 29 Comex March silver futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Comex March copper futures first notice day
Feb. 29 Nymex March palladium futures first notice day

Last night Harvey Organ said:

“This is the first time in quite a while that gold and silver rose big time a day before first day notice. The bankers try and influence our longs not to take delivery so they generally raid. Today was different.”

Well, Harvey spoke too soon; it really wasn’t different. The metals rallied higher yesterday, and then were smacked down in a very calculated and violent bear raid today.

I was expecting something like this, and here it is. These fellows have their backs to the wall in silver.

First day notice is when holders of paper futures give notice to the exchange that they intend to take delivery the silver claims they hold from the Comex warehouse. The amount of paper held is multiples of the bullion that can be delivered at current prices.

The ‘tell’ is the lack of a serious sell off in equities. The yawning divergence in the risk trade is hard to miss.

This notion that gold and silver are selling off because Bernanke is not going to do QE3 is ludicrous. He does not need to do QE3. The Fed is all over these markets in Operation Twist. Jim Rickards has explained this scenario many times that I have linked here.

What is the answer? Unless you are a full time experienced trader playing with ‘cool money,’ stop trading. This market is far too thin and given over to gimmicks for the average person to participate. It really is.

Take long term positions that suit your investment situation, and then ignore the noise that the trading desks throw out to shake people from their positions, painting pictures on the charts to shape perception.

Bernanke is still powerful, but the trends in the longer term are even more powerful.

The volatility and gaming in the markets will only get worse, as they are thinly traded and dominated by a few big trading houses that act as they choose, almost with impunity. And if a major default is coming, the volatily will go through the roof.

You have three choices. Buy, sell, or stay out of the daily trade.

And for the vast majority, the last choice is the best. If you have the overwhelming urge to gamble with your money, take a trip to Las Vegas or Atlantic City. The food is better, the drinks are cheaper, and the games, although still stacked against you, are at least relatively honest.

And you don’t have to worry about the Casino looting your accounts and safe deposit boxes to cover their own personal gambling losses.

Jesse at 11:09 AM

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